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Voting in Ruins: Examining the Effect of a Tornado on Voting Behavior Toward Coalition Government Parties

Jakub Jusko & Peter Spáč

Economics & Politics2026https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70032article
AJG 2ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

The electoral effects of natural disasters have gained increasing importance in recent research. This paper analyzes the impact of an unprecedentedly strong tornado on the electoral results of coalition government parties in the 2021 Czech general election. We find a positive effect on support for the main governing party, ANO, which played a leading role in the disaster relief program. However, the smaller incumbent party, ČSSD, which had less involvement in relief policies, did not experience a similar electoral advantage. Our study suggests that the electoral impact of disasters varies among coalition parties.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70032

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@article{jakub2026,
  title        = {{Voting in Ruins: Examining the Effect of a Tornado on Voting Behavior Toward Coalition Government Parties}},
  author       = {Jakub Jusko & Peter Spáč},
  journal      = {Economics & Politics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70032},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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