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Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Response of Labor Migration to Economic Shocks

Andrea Foschi et al.

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity2025https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2025.a978547article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.37

Abstract

ABSTRACT: We examine the responsiveness of labor participation, unemployment, and labor migration to exogenous variations in labor demand. Our empirical approach considers four instruments for regional labor demand commonly used in the literature. Empirically, we find that labor migration is a significant margin of adjustment for all our instruments. Following an increase in regional labor demand, the initial increase in employment is accounted for mainly by a reduction in unemployment. Over time however, net labor in-migration becomes the dominant factor contributing to increased regional employment. After five years, roughly 60 percent of the increase in employment is explained by the change in population. Responses of labor migration are strongest for individuals age 20–35. Based on historical data back to the 1950s, we find no evidence of a decline in the elasticity of migration to changes in employment.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2025.a978547

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@article{andrea2025,
  title        = {{Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Response of Labor Migration to Economic Shocks}},
  author       = {Andrea Foschi et al.},
  journal      = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2025.a978547},
}

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Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Response of Labor Migration to Economic Shocks

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Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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