A Markov model for prediction of academic manpower system in Nigerian colleges of education

Shamsuddeen Ahmad Sabo et al.

International Journal of Operational Research2026https://doi.org/10.1504/ijor.2026.152295article
AJG 1
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

This research employed a Markov model to assess the progression of the academic staff workforce in Nigerian colleges of education, using Sa'adatu Rimi College of Education, Kano as a case study. The objective was to underscore the importance of effective workforce planning in mitigating staff shortages or surpluses. By analysing transition probabilities derived from college planning department data, the study constructed a transition probability matrix depicting staff flow over time. The Markov model's findings projected an estimated 568 academic staff members for the college in the 2024/2025 session, distributed across academic ranks. Notably, the forecasted staff structure skewed towards higher ranks. Furthermore, the study offered insights into new staff members' anticipated years of service at different academic ranks. The research underscores the pivotal role of workforce planning in educational institutions, highlighting the Markov model's value in guiding staffing and workforce management decisions.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1504/ijor.2026.152295

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@article{shamsuddeen2026,
  title        = {{A Markov model for prediction of academic manpower system in Nigerian colleges of education}},
  author       = {Shamsuddeen Ahmad Sabo et al.},
  journal      = {International Journal of Operational Research},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1504/ijor.2026.152295},
}

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A Markov model for prediction of academic manpower system in Nigerian colleges of education

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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