Spatial interdependencies and agricultural land-use transitions in Mexico: a shift-share decomposition (2003–2023)

What the paper says

Abstract Over the past two decades, Mexico’s agricultural landscape has been reshaped by policy reforms, trade liberalization, and shifts in crop competitiveness. Yet limited research has examined these transformations through frameworks that capture interregional spatial interactions of agricultural change. This study analyses land-use transitions across six major crop groups: cereals, legumes, fruits, vegetables, forages, and industrial crops using municipal-level data from 2003 to 2023. We apply a spatial shift-share analysis to decompose changes into national, regional, and neighborhood effects, allowing us to identify spatially differentiated trajectories and agricultural performance typologies. This research follows an exploratory approach oriented to uncover spatial patterns and structural dynamics in agricultural land-use transitions, for which no prior spatial decomposition analyses exist in the Mexican context. Results show that agricultural policy instruments have actively shaped land-use outcomes—driving the contraction of cereals and legumes under liberalization-oriented policies, bolstering forage specialization, and supporting the expansion of alternative crops in regions targeted by more recent territorially focused programs. However, these effects are often constrained by ecological fragility and structural inequalities. By integrating a spatial decomposition framework, this study provides new evidence on the structural drivers of agricultural land-use transitions in Mexico, clarifying the extent to which market competitiveness, food-security imperatives, institutional incentives, or international agreements shape them. The findings offer actionable insights for designing spatially differentiated rural development and agricultural policy strategies.