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Supplemental Material for Experts’ Ability to Predict the Future Fosters Unwarranted Optimistic Expectations

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Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied2026https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000564.supparticle
AJG 4ABDC A
Weight
0.50

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000564.supp

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@article{unknown2026,
  title        = {{Supplemental Material for Experts’ Ability to Predict the Future Fosters Unwarranted Optimistic Expectations}},
  author       = {Unknown author},
  journal      = {Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000564.supp},
}

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Supplemental Material for Experts’ Ability to Predict the Future Fosters Unwarranted Optimistic Expectations

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.