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Silence or Solidarity? The Political Pitfalls of an LGBTQI Avoidance Strategy in Hungary

Phillip M. Ayoub & Sam Whitt

Comparative Politics2026https://doi.org/10.5129/001041526x17734964392222article
ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Amid rising illiberal anti-LGBTQI backlash, some opposition politicians fear that resisting it is a political trap that could jeopardize their electoral fortunes. We evaluate this concern in Hungary, where Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz government passed a law banning Pride marches. The leading opposition figure, Péter Magyar of Tisza, initially avoided opposing the law, ostensibly to protect his party’s future electoral prospects. In a May 2025 survey experiment, we find that this “avoidance” strategy reduces Magyar’s approval while failing to increase support for his party. Theoretically, we conceptualize a value-credibility cost mechanism through which elite silence diminishes moral authority, cedes issue ownership, and weakens support for LGBTQI rights. Our results, buttressed by interviews with LGBTQI organizers, contribute to a literature on the costs and benefits of minority rights inclusion in electoral strategy.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5129/001041526x17734964392222

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@article{phillip2026,
  title        = {{Silence or Solidarity? The Political Pitfalls of an LGBTQI Avoidance Strategy in Hungary}},
  author       = {Phillip M. Ayoub & Sam Whitt},
  journal      = {Comparative Politics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5129/001041526x17734964392222},
}

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Silence or Solidarity? The Political Pitfalls of an LGBTQI Avoidance Strategy in Hungary

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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