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Just Ask Them Twice: Choice Probabilities and Identification of Ex ante returns and Willingness-To-Pay

Romuald Méango & Esther Mirjam Girsberger

The Economic Journal2026https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueag018article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

One of the exciting developments in the stated preference literature is the use of probabilistic stated preference experiments to estimate semi-parametric population distributions of ex ante returns and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a choice attribute. This relies on eliciting several choices per individual and estimating separate demand functions at the cost of possibly long survey instruments. This paper shows that the distributions of interest can be recovered from at most two stated choices with significantly weaker assumptions. Hence, it allows for significantly shorter survey instruments. The paper also shows that eliciting probabilistic stated choices allows identifying much richer objects than we have done so far, and therefore, provides better tools for ex ante policy evaluation. Finally, it showcases the feasibility and relevance of the results by studying the preferences of high ability students in Côte d’Ivoire for public sector jobs by exploiting a unique survey on this population. Our analysis supports the claim that public sector jobs might significantly increase the cost of hiring elite students for the private sector.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueag018

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@article{romuald2026,
  title        = {{Just Ask Them Twice: Choice Probabilities and Identification of Ex ante returns and Willingness-To-Pay}},
  author       = {Romuald Méango & Esther Mirjam Girsberger},
  journal      = {The Economic Journal},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueag018},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.