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Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?

Anton Bobrov et al.

American Economic Review: Insights2025https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20240184article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.41

Abstract

US monetary policy decisions are made by the 12 voting members of the FOMC, seven of which inherently represent national-level interests. The remaining members, a rotating group of presidents from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, come instead from subnational jurisdictions. Does this structure have implications for the monetary policymaking process? We provide novel evidence that regional economic conditions influence the voting behavior of district presidents. Specifically, a regional unemployment rate that is 1 percentage point higher than the national level is associated with an approximately 9 percentage point higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy at the FOMC. (JEL E24, E32, E43, E52, E58)

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20240184

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@article{anton2025,
  title        = {{Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?}},
  author       = {Anton Bobrov et al.},
  journal      = {American Economic Review: Insights},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20240184},
}

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Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?

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Evidence weight

0.41

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.25 × 0.4 = 0.10
M · momentum0.55 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.