arbiter
JournalsPricingAccount

The Inverted Okun's Law: Evidence from France

Jean-François Verne

Review of Economic Analysis2025https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v17i3.6502article
AJG 1ABDC B
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

This study considers the nonlinear relationship between GDP growth and unemployment in France (1975–2024) using a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model. Findings reveal a threshold unemployment rate of 7.93%, above which the traditional Okun’s law holds (GDP growth reduces unemployment). Below this threshold, an inverted Okun’s law emerges, where economic growth coincides with rising unemployment. This is explained by technological advancements, skill mismatches, and delayed employment adjustments. The results indicate that macroeconomic policies based on linear assumptions are limited in their capacity to address unemployment challenges effectively. Recognizing these nonlinear dynamics is crucial for designing effective labor market policies that account for asymmetries in economic fluctuations.

Open paper page →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v17i3.6502

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{jean-françois2025,
  title        = {{The Inverted Okun's Law: Evidence from France}},
  author       = {Jean-François Verne},
  journal      = {Review of Economic Analysis},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v17i3.6502},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

The Inverted Okun's Law: Evidence from France

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.