arbiter
JournalsAccount

Forecasting the Age Structure of the Scientific Workforce in Australia

Rob J. Hyndman & K. C. Nguyen

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics2026https://doi.org/10.1111/anzs.70043article
ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Planning for a future workforce requires forecasts of age structure changes to inform policy decisions, particularly related to universities and immigration. We propose a new dynamic statistical model for forecasting the age structure of a workforce. Our approach is inspired by a stochastic model used in population forecasting, replacing births with graduate entry, modelling exits through death and retirement and including a remainder term that captures migration and career changes. Functional data models are used to model age‐specific components, while ARIMA models are used for time series components. Simulation is employed to generate forecast distributions, capturing uncertainty from all components. The approach is illustrated using data on Australia's scientific workforce, allowing us to forecast the age distribution of various scientific disciplines for the next ten years. This analysis was central to an Australian Academy of Science initiative examining the capability of Australia's science system and identifying workforce gaps.

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/anzs.70043

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{rob2026,
  title        = {{Forecasting the Age Structure of the Scientific Workforce in Australia}},
  author       = {Rob J. Hyndman & K. C. Nguyen},
  journal      = {Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/anzs.70043},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Forecasting the Age Structure of the Scientific Workforce in Australia

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.