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Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen

Adam Brighty et al.

Energy Policy2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179article
AJG 2ABDC A
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0.50

Abstract

Many air pollutants are directly or indirectly caused by energy production and consumption. There is concern that decarbonising economies by replacing fossil fuel with hydrogen combustion could lead to higher pollutant emissions than by an electrification strategy. This study examines the implications of adopting hydrogen. Future UK energy scenarios, with varying levels of hydrogen, have been produced using the UK TIMES energy systems model, and a link established to the air pollution model UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model). Using this interface, air pollutant emissions from the energy sector have been derived and superimposed on non-energy contributions to map concentrations and estimate the resulting exposure to PM 2.5 and NO 2 pollution in the UK and associated health benefits. All net zero scenarios achieve a substantial improvement in air quality, with a maximum of 0.3 μg m −3 contribution to PM 2.5 population-weighted mean concentrations from hydrogen production and use. This depends on the hydrogen technologies used: as a worst case, hydrogen could eliminate 50% of the economic benefits resulting from improved air quality under net zero measures. This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NO x . However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM 2.5 emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM 2.5 concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios. • UK TIMES energy projections with different levels of hydrogen deployment. • Scenarios' air pollution impacts modelled using the UK Integrated Assessment Model. • Impacts assessed using a range of hydrogen production and use emission factors. • Similar spatial concentrations of PM 2.5 across hydrogen demand range. • Modest contribution to PM 2.5 PWMC from largest feasible hydrogen economy.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179

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@article{adam2026,
  title        = {{Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen}},
  author       = {Adam Brighty et al.},
  journal      = {Energy Policy},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115179},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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