Choosing portfolios of rival risky options: evidence that most people violate the no safety schools theorem

David B. Johnson & Matthew D. Webb

Journal of Economic Science Association2025https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10018article
AJG 1ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Many important decisions, for example, applying to college, require an individual to simultaneously submit several applications. These decisions are unique as each application is risky because acceptance is uncertain while also being rival as one can only attend a single college. In an influential theoretical analysis of these problems, Chade and Smith (2006) establish the No Safety Schools Theorem which suggests larger portfolios are riskier than single choices. We offer experimental evidence, using several experiments, that this theorem is routinely violated. In fact, the majority of our subjects violate this theorem. However, performance improves with practice, advice, and feedback.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10018

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@article{david2025,
  title        = {{Choosing portfolios of rival risky options: evidence that most people violate the no safety schools theorem}},
  author       = {David B. Johnson & Matthew D. Webb},
  journal      = {Journal of Economic Science Association},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10018},
}

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Choosing portfolios of rival risky options: evidence that most people violate the no safety schools theorem

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.