arbiter
JournalsPricingAccount

Does the U.S. Federal Deficit Respond More to Revenues, Expenses, or GDP Growth? A Time-Varying Coefficient Analysis

Robert Gmeiner

Public Finance Review2025https://doi.org/10.1177/10911421251385269article
ABDC B
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

The feasibility of fiscal stimulus depends on levels of sovereign debt and future impacts on budget deficits, regardless of whether it is effective at increasing economic growth. This paper tests whether changes in revenues, expenses, GDP growth rates, private investment, and monetary stimulus affect the United States federal deficit one year after the change, taking account of fiscal multiplier effects. A state space model with time-varying coefficients from 1963 through 2019 shows that the deficit responds somewhat more to expenses, especially social insurance outlays, implying that entitlement reform may be the single best policy for fiscal solvency. For much of the time period, revenues and expenses are insignificant except in times of major upheaval and rapid change, showing the political nature of the problem and demonstrating that the solution must involve both revenues and expenses simultaneously, with careful attention to multiplier effects.

Open paper page →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/10911421251385269

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{robert2025,
  title        = {{Does the U.S. Federal Deficit Respond More to Revenues, Expenses, or GDP Growth? A Time-Varying Coefficient Analysis}},
  author       = {Robert Gmeiner},
  journal      = {Public Finance Review},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/10911421251385269},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Does the U.S. Federal Deficit Respond More to Revenues, Expenses, or GDP Growth? A Time-Varying Coefficient Analysis

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.