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External forcings and predictability of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation: A model confidence set approach

Alessandro Giovannelli & Umberto Triacca

International Journal of Forecasting2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.01.004article
AJG 3ABDC A
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0.50

Abstract

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is a key mode of North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, linked to precipitation, hurricane activity, and temperature anomalies. This paper studies the role that anthropogenic (CO 2 , CH 4 , sulfate aerosols) and natural forcings (volcanic, solar) play in long-term AMO prediction. We employ the model confidence set (MCS) to compare forecasts from vector autoregressive (VAR) specifications, considering all variable combinations across five-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year horizons. Our analysis shows that models including anthropogenic forcings from CO 2 , CH 4 , and sulfate aerosols perform better, indicating that an externally forced (anthropogenic) component largely drives AMO variability. A further contribution deals with out-of-sample forecasts of the AMO for the period from 2020–2100. Using various VAR specifications, we constructed forecasts based on different scenarios. We then compared these conditional forecasts with those obtained from unconditional VARs and with the AMO reconstructed from the sea surface temperature projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Overall, the results indicate a clear anthropogenic imprint on the variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. This suggests that the predictability of the AMO should be reconsidered in light of external forcings, as these factors significantly influence long-term variability.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.01.004

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@article{alessandro2026,
  title        = {{External forcings and predictability of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation: A model confidence set approach}},
  author       = {Alessandro Giovannelli & Umberto Triacca},
  journal      = {International Journal of Forecasting},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.01.004},
}

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External forcings and predictability of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation: A model confidence set approach

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F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
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R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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