The Importance of Base-Rates in Differential Impact: A Bail Reform Case-Study

Aurélie Ouss & Matt Stevenson

Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1628/jite-2025-0008article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.37

Abstract

Researchers commonly seek to understand whether a policy has differential impact on different subgroups, yet the choice of differential impact metric can have a huge effect on interpretation. Commonly used metrics, such as comparing treatment effects in magnitude or as a percentage of the control mean, frequently do not correspond to the question of interest. If the relevant question is how the intervention affected potential beneficiaries of the reform, a different base rate must be used. We demonstrate how to implement a base-rate adjusted impact metric in a difference-in-differences setting using Philadelphia bail reform as an example.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1628/jite-2025-0008

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@article{aurélie2025,
  title        = {{The Importance of Base-Rates in Differential Impact: A Bail Reform Case-Study}},
  author       = {Aurélie Ouss & Matt Stevenson},
  journal      = {Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1628/jite-2025-0008},
}

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The Importance of Base-Rates in Differential Impact: A Bail Reform Case-Study

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Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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