Optimal Factor Timing in a High-Dimensional Setting

Rob Lehnherr et al.

Financial Analysts Journal2025https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198x.2025.2474385article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.37

Abstract

We develop a framework for equity factor timing in a high-dimensional setting when the number of factors and factor return predictors can be large. To ensure good out-of-sample performance, the approach is disciplined by shrinkage that effectively expresses a degree of skepticism about outsized gains from timing. In our empirical application, the predictors include macroeconomic variables and factor-specific characteristics spreads between the long and short legs of the factors. We find sizable gains from timing equity factors, including for factors constructed only from large-cap stocks.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198x.2025.2474385

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@article{rob2025,
  title        = {{Optimal Factor Timing in a High-Dimensional Setting}},
  author       = {Rob Lehnherr et al.},
  journal      = {Financial Analysts Journal},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198x.2025.2474385},
}

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Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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