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Do Imports Increase Unemployment? Empirical Estimates That Are Not Model Dependent

Jonathan E. Leightner

Frontiers of Economics in China2021https://doi.org/10.54605/fec20210302article
ABDC C
Weight
0.42

What the paper says

Some Ricardian models would predict a fall in unemployment with trade liberalization. In contrast, the Heckscher-Ohlin model (Stolper Samuelson Theorem) would predict trade liberalization would cause a fall in wages for labor scarce countries, resulting in greater unemployment if there are wage rigidities. The choice of which theoretical model is used affects the empirical results obtained. This paper produces estimates of the change in unemployment due to a change in imports that are not model dependent. The estimates produced are total derivatives that capture all the ways that imports and unemployment are correlated. I find that unemployment increases with increased imports for Austria, Greece, Japan, Portugal, South Korea, Slovenia, and Sweden, but that unemployment decreases with increased imports for Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, the UK, and the US.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.54605/fec20210302

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@article{jonathan2021,
  title        = {{Do Imports Increase Unemployment? Empirical Estimates That Are Not Model Dependent}},
  author       = {Jonathan E. Leightner},
  journal      = {Frontiers of Economics in China},
  year         = {2021},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.54605/fec20210302},
}

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Do Imports Increase Unemployment? Empirical Estimates That Are Not Model Dependent

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Evidence weight

0.42

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.19 × 0.4 = 0.08
M · momentum0.80 × 0.15 = 0.12
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.