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The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Paola Vesco et al.

Journal of Conflict Resolution2026https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261423826article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Event datasets, such as those provided by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), provide high-quality data on conflict fatalities. However, such data are likely to suffer from an unknown extent of bias and uncertainties in the reports they are based on. Although a substantial literature documents reporting bias in conflict research, analyses that quantify this bias are mostly limited to single countries. Here, we combine a survey with UCDP coders and statistical modeling to derive a distribution of plausible number of fatalities given the number of battle-related deaths and the type of violence documented by the UCDP. We provide a generalizable, cross-national measure of uncertainty around UCDP reported fatalities that is more robust and realistic than UCDP’s documented low and high estimates, countering UCDP’s intrinsic tendency to under-estimate fatalities, and we make available a dataset and R package that can be applied to future releases of the UCDP data.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261423826

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@article{paola2026,
  title        = {{The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders}},
  author       = {Paola Vesco et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261423826},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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