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Publication Bias and Model Uncertainty in Measuring the Effect of Class Size on Achievement

Matěj Opatrný et al.

Journal of Labor Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1086/737989article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.51

Abstract

Class size reduction mandates are frequent and invariably justified by studies reporting positive effects on student achievement. Yet other studies report no effects, and the literature as a whole awaits correction for potential publication bias. Moreover, if identification drives results systematically, the relevance of individual studies will vary. We build a sample of 1,767 estimates collected from 62 studies and for each estimate codify 42 factors reflecting estimation context. We employ recently developed nonlinear techniques for publication bias correction and Bayesian model averaging techniques that address model uncertainty. The results suggest publication bias among studies featured in top five economics journals, but not elsewhere. The implied class size effect is zero for all identification approaches except Tennessee's Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio project. The effect remains zero for disadvantaged students and across subjects, school types, and countries.

7 citations

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/737989

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@article{matěj2025,
  title        = {{Publication Bias and Model Uncertainty in Measuring the Effect of Class Size on Achievement}},
  author       = {Matěj Opatrný et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Labor Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/737989},
}

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Publication Bias and Model Uncertainty in Measuring the Effect of Class Size on Achievement

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Evidence weight

0.51

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.47 × 0.4 = 0.19
M · momentum0.63 × 0.15 = 0.09
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.