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Uncertainty Significantly Influences Healthcare Policy Decisions

Felipa de Mello-Sampayo

Man and the Economy2025https://doi.org/10.1515/me-2024-0004article
AJG 1
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Uncertainty significantly influences healthcare policy decisions, especially regarding lockdown exits during pandemics. This study examines both epidemiological and economic and social uncertainties affecting stay-at-home and essential workers concerning COVID-19 exposure. Using an epidemiological real options model, we assess how these uncertainties impact the timing of lockdown exit decisions. The results indicate that a higher policy-change value lengthens the lockdown delay. A greater shock correlation between stay-at-home and mask-only populations reduces this value, leading to earlier lockdown exits. By conceptually incorporating economic and social pressures, such as income disruption, public fatigue, and policy irreversibility, the model provides a more realistic understanding of the trade-offs faced by decision-makers. These findings bridge the discrepancies between public health recommendations and policymakers’ actions. Integrating options theory enables more informed decision making by considering uncertain risks and outcomes.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1515/me-2024-0004

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@article{felipa2025,
  title        = {{Uncertainty Significantly Influences Healthcare Policy Decisions}},
  author       = {Felipa de Mello-Sampayo},
  journal      = {Man and the Economy},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1515/me-2024-0004},
}

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Uncertainty Significantly Influences Healthcare Policy Decisions

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.