arbiter
JournalsAccount

The effects of fiscal policy shocks: evidence from a Bayesian SVAR model with uncertain identifying assumptions

Anna Sznajderska et al.

Macroeconomic Dynamics2026https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100525100771article
AJG 2ABDC A
Weight
0.37

Abstract

We explore the effects of fiscal policy shocks on aggregate output and inflation. We use the Bayesian econometric methodology of Baumeister and Hamilton applied to the fiscal structural vector autoregressive model to evaluate key elasticities and fiscal multipliers using U.S. data. In our baseline specification that ends before Covid pandemic, the government spending multiplier is equal to approximately $0.57$ and tax multiplier is approximately $-0.35$ after one year. The short-term output elasticity of government spending is statistically insignificant and the output elasticity of taxes is approximately equal to $2.26$ .

1 citation

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100525100771

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{anna2026,
  title        = {{The effects of fiscal policy shocks: evidence from a Bayesian SVAR model with uncertain identifying assumptions}},
  author       = {Anna Sznajderska et al.},
  journal      = {Macroeconomic Dynamics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100525100771},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

The effects of fiscal policy shocks: evidence from a Bayesian SVAR model with uncertain identifying assumptions

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.