‘Do songs tell stories?’ An empirical analysis of the effect of emotional arcs on success in a national song contest

Jürgen Rösch & Martín Rauch

Journal of Cultural Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1007/s10824-025-09532-6article
AJG 2ABDC A
Weight
0.41

Abstract

This article explores whether the lyrics of songs influence their success in a national song contest. We constructed emotional arcs from over 6.763 song lyrics and examined their impact on contest performance. Our findings reveal that these emotional arcs echo established behavioral phenomena such as the ‘paradox of negative emotion’ and the ‘peak-end rule’. Typically, songs characterized by sorrowful plots and endings receive higher scores than those with more joyful emotional themes. Furthermore, such songs are more likely to be awarded points initially. Despite this, contestants often choose songs with positive endings for their performances. To isolate the effects of lyrics from other song characteristics, we utilized Spotify metrics, including danceability, energy, and tempo. This methodology allows us to differentiate the influence of musical and lyrical elements on listener decision-making. This study contributes to the growing literature on the behavioral aspects of music and its impact on decision-making.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10824-025-09532-6

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@article{jürgen2025,
  title        = {{‘Do songs tell stories?’ An empirical analysis of the effect of emotional arcs on success in a national song contest}},
  author       = {Jürgen Rösch & Martín Rauch},
  journal      = {Journal of Cultural Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10824-025-09532-6},
}

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Evidence weight

0.41

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.25 × 0.4 = 0.10
M · momentum0.55 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.