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True Cost of War: The Conflict in Eastern Ukraine

Erhan Artuç et al.

The Review of Economics and Statistics2026https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.a.1737article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

This paper proposes a new method to estimate the welfare impact of conflicts and remedy common data constraints in conflict-affected environments. The method first estimates how agents regard spatial welfare differentials by voting with their feet, using pre-conflict data. Then, it infers a lower-bound estimate for the conflict-driven welfare shock from partially observed post-conflict migration patterns. Results for the conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2019 show a large lower-bound welfare loss for Donetsk residents equivalent to 8–32 percent of lifetime income depending on agents’ time preference and risk aversion parameters.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.a.1737

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@article{erhan2026,
  title        = {{True Cost of War: The Conflict in Eastern Ukraine}},
  author       = {Erhan Artuç et al.},
  journal      = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.a.1737},
}

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True Cost of War: The Conflict in Eastern Ukraine

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.