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Heritability of different measures of overconfidence

J.E. Dooley et al.

Journal of Economic Science Association2025https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10016article
AJG 1ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Incorrect estimation of own absolute and relative abilities is common and can have detrimental effects on a person’s educational, social, employment, and financial outcomes. It is not yet fully understood from where interpersonal differences in overconfidence emerge. In this paper, we estimate the heritability of two types of overconfidence, overestimation, and overplacement, in a sample of 1120 twins. We find that the genetic heritability of overestimation (overplacement) is about 19% (17%) and that most of the interindividual variation in overconfidence is due to individual-specific environmental factors.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10016

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@article{j.e.2025,
  title        = {{Heritability of different measures of overconfidence}},
  author       = {J.E. Dooley et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Economic Science Association},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10016},
}

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Heritability of different measures of overconfidence

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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