From geopolitical risk to geopolitical uncertainty: a scenario-based approach

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the evolving nature of geopolitical threats and introduce a scenario-based framework for businesses to navigate an increasingly uncertain international environment. Drawing on the theoretical underpinnings of scenario planning, this study suggests that firms must shift from traditional risk-based models to uncertainty-driven anticipatory strategies. Design/methodology/approach Using real-world case studies and a structured methodological framework, the authors illustrate how scenario planning can be institutionalized within organizations to improve strategic foresight and resilience. Findings This research highlights that geopolitical uncertainty differs fundamentally from geopolitical risk because of the inability to assign probabilities to complex and often unprecedented global events. By embracing scenario-based methodologies, businesses can move beyond reactive risk assessments toward proactive, strategic engagement with geopolitical uncertainty. This transformation enables organizations to “learn from the future,” enhancing their capacity to anticipate disruptions and safeguard long-term operations. Practical implications To achieve this result, the authors describe the steps of the process to be implemented from a very practical point of view. Originality/value The approach the authors suggest allows companies to look to the future by creating genuine intimacy with their geopolitical environment.