This research project examines the role of insurance companies in facilitating the transition to a sustainable economy. In particular, we will explore how insurance companies can contribute to the containment and protection from catastrophe risks. For this study, we want to investigate the Italian case as one of the European countries. We forecast gross insurance claims expenditure and evaluate the model’s performance. The forecast for 2021–2028 reveals an upward trend, suggesting potential financial stress for insurers. These findings have significant implications for financial regulators and managerial decision-making, emphasizing the need for robust forecasting tools to support climate risk assessment, solvency planning, and strategic adaptation. The study aligns with the Climate-Wise Partnership approach by promoting transparent, data-driven collaboration among stakeholders to enhance resilience against climate-induced risks.