Testing the Adaptive Market Hypothesis through the Presence of Dependence in the Swiss Stock Exchange
Christophe Boya
What the paper says
This paper focuses on whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides an appropriate framework to describe the behavior of the Swiss index market. The analysis uses a time varying Hurst modified exponent with both fixed and varying sliding window lengths. Results suggest that often the Swiss stock exchange follows an independent stochastic process. However, investigation reveals the presence of periods of inefficiency suggesting significant return predictability that occur depending on changing market conditions such as global macroeconomics. These events, which can be either exogenous or endogenous shocks are associated with either long-range dependence or mean-reverting phenomenon. These results provide insights into investment horizons and investors reactions.
Evidence weight
Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40
| F · citation impact | 0.00 × 0.4 = 0.00 |
| M · momentum | 0.20 × 0.15 = 0.03 |
| V · venue signal | 0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03 |
| R · text relevance † | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.