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Risk Assessment as Policy in Immigration Detention Decisions

David Hausman

The Journal of Law and Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1086/731081article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.37

Abstract

A large literature examines the effects of algorithmic risk assessments on judges’ bail decisions in criminal cases. This article examines these effects in the immigration detention context. In 2017, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement changed its risk-assessment tool. Before the change, the tool could recommend detention, release, or referral to a supervisor; afterward, it did not recommend release—ever. Taking advantage of the suddenness of this change, I show that the removal of the release recommendation reduced actual release decisions by about half, from around 10 percent to around 5 percent of all decisions. Officers continued to follow the tool’s detention recommendations at only a slightly lower rate after the change, and when officers did deviate from the tool’s recommendation to order release, supervisors became more likely to overrule their decisions.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/731081

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@article{david2025,
  title        = {{Risk Assessment as Policy in Immigration Detention Decisions}},
  author       = {David Hausman},
  journal      = {The Journal of Law and Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/731081},
}

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Risk Assessment as Policy in Immigration Detention Decisions

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Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.