arbiter
JournalsAccount

Childlessness, child allowance policy, and economic growth: can childcare support policies be beneficial for all households?

Daisuke Ikazaki

Journal of Demographic Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2026.10016article
ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Many developed economies face declining fertility rates and aging populations, driven significantly by the rising prevalence of childless households. This paper extends a simple overlapping generations (OLG) model to examine how this trend affects household utility. By assuming heterogeneous preferences for child-rearing, the model treats the proportion of childless households as endogenous, determined by utility maximization. The analysis reveals that an increase in childlessness generally exerts a negative impact on overall household utility. Furthermore, the study evaluates childcare support policies, balancing the distortionary effects of higher taxes against the benefits of reduced rearing costs and enhanced social security from a larger future workforce. Numerical simulations suggest that while most households favor the introduction of childcare support, their preferred tax rates vary significantly. These findings highlight the complex trade-offs in policy design when addressing demographic shifts through fiscal interventions.

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2026.10016

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{daisuke2026,
  title        = {{Childlessness, child allowance policy, and economic growth: can childcare support policies be beneficial for all households?}},
  author       = {Daisuke Ikazaki},
  journal      = {Journal of Demographic Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2026.10016},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Childlessness, child allowance policy, and economic growth: can childcare support policies be beneficial for all households?

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.