Purpose This study aims to investigate the impact of peers’ problematic behaviors on students’ academic performance, considering potential moderating effects based on students’ educational expectations. Design/methodology/approach We utilized data from the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS) to assess the suggested measurements, such as the number of participants’ close friends with problem behaviors, using regression models. Findings Grounded in problem behavior theory (PBT) and expectancy-value theory (EVT), the findings suggest that peers’ problem behaviors impact academic performance. Students’ expectations exacerbate class-skipping effects, lessen fighting effects, but do not affect dropout impacts. Originality/value This study provides several main contributions. For instance, it offers new insights by examining how students’ educational expectations may moderate these effects. At the study’s conclusion, practical implications for practitioners and policymakers are outlined, along with addressing the study’s limitations.