Enhancing Climate Shock Vulnerability Assessment with energy reliability: A comprehensive case study of the Dominican Republic

Abstract

Power outages (POs) are an increasing concern as climate-related shocks become more frequent and severe, disrupting essential services and exacerbating socio-economic vulnerabilities. In the Dominican Republic, where hurricanes and climate variability place constant pressure on energy infrastructure, the rising frequency of these events underscores the urgent need to assess their impact on climate vulnerability. While vulnerability assessments often focus on socio-economic or environmental factors, the role of energy reliability, measured through the frequency and duration of POs, remains underexplored, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean, where publicly accessible PO data is limited. This research addresses this gap by integrating energy reliability into the Climate Shock Vulnerability Index (IVACC), which estimates a household’s vulnerability to climatic phenomena. The methodological innovation lies in the spatial alignment of PO data from medium-voltage feeders with climate-related social vulnerability indicators at a common spatial scale, enabling an integrated assessment of social and infrastructural vulnerability. Using geospatial autocorrelation analysis, focus areas within EDENORTE’s energy distribution network were selected. Reliability was assessed through SAIFI (System Average Interruption Frequency Index), and this metric was integrated into a single composite indicator (IVACCe) using Pareto ranking to avoid arbitrary weighting. Applied at the neighborhood level, the enhanced model offers a nuanced view of vulnerability, identifying areas where social vulnerability and energy reliability intersect to amplify risks. This approach provides policymakers with a targeted tool to prioritize resilience strategies, ensuring that investments in energy infrastructure align with climate adaptation and equity goals.