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Firm‐Level Impacts of Additional US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0: Evidence From Taiwan

Kuo‐I Chang & Kazunobu Hayakawa

Developing Economies2026https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.70011article
ABDC B
Weight
0.37

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the effects of the additional tariffs imposed by the US in 2025 on the Taiwanese economy. The analysis is based on monthly sales data for Taiwanese firms from January 2023 to July 2025. Tariff effects are identified by comparing 2025 monthly sales of firms whose primary sales destination was the US in 2023 with those whose primary destinations were elsewhere. Consistent with the trend of national‐level exports to the US, we find that additional US tariffs have not yet affected Taiwanese exporters. Additional results indicate that (1) Taiwanese firms with affiliates in the US did not experience positive sales effects; and (2) firms with larger production shares in China have not experienced significant changes in sales. Overall, the economic impacts of Trump 2.0 on Taiwan remain limited as of July 2025. JEL Classification: F15, F53

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.70011

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@article{kuo‐i2026,
  title        = {{Firm‐Level Impacts of Additional US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0: Evidence From Taiwan}},
  author       = {Kuo‐I Chang & Kazunobu Hayakawa},
  journal      = {Developing Economies},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.70011},
}

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Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.