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Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide-Treated Nets

Aprajit Mahajan et al.

The Review of Economic Studies2026https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag018article
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Abstract

Time-inconsistency may play a central role in explaining inter-temporal behaviour, particularly among poor households. However, little is known about the distribution of time-inconsistent agents, and time-preference parameters are typically not identified in standard dynamic choice models. We formulate a dynamic discrete choice model in an unobservedly heterogeneous population of possibly time-inconsistent agents. We provide conditions under which all population type probabilities and preferences for both time-consistent and sophisticated agents are point-identified and sharp set-identification results for naïve and partially sophisticated agents. Estimating the model using data from a health intervention providing insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in rural Odisha, India, we find that about two-thirds of our sample comprises time-inconsistent agents and that both sophisticated and naïve agents are considerably present-biased. Counterfactuals show that the under-investment in ITNs attributable to present-bias leads to substantial costs that are about four times the price of an ITN.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag018

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@article{aprajit2026,
  title        = {{Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide-Treated Nets}},
  author       = {Aprajit Mahajan et al.},
  journal      = {The Review of Economic Studies},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdag018},
}

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Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide-Treated Nets

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