arbiter
JournalsPricingAccount

Geopolitical Risk and Stock Returns: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Trần Trọng Huỳnh & Bui Thanh Khoa

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance2026https://doi.org/10.1177/22779787251413868article
AJG 1ABDC C
Weight
0.37

What the paper says

From an investor’s perspective, this study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on stock returns in Vietnam, an emerging market characterized by high sensitivity to global shocks. Using monthly data for all listed companies between January 2010 and December 2023, we employ a panel fixed effects model as the primary specification to control for unobserved firm heterogeneity. The results reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between GPR and stock returns, indicating that geopolitical uncertainty erodes investor confidence and market performance. Consistent with the risk–return trade-off, firms more sensitive to GPR (higher GPR β ) exhibit higher expected returns, reflecting investors’ demand for compensation for elevated risk. Robustness checks using pooled OLS confirm the stability of the findings. By focusing on an emerging market context, this study contributes novel evidence on how geopolitical shocks shape financial outcomes and highlights the importance of integrating GPR measures into risk assessment and investment strategies. JEL Classification: G12, G14, F51

1 citation

Open paper page →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/22779787251413868

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{trần2026,
  title        = {{Geopolitical Risk and Stock Returns: Evidence from an Emerging Market}},
  author       = {Trần Trọng Huỳnh & Bui Thanh Khoa},
  journal      = {South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/22779787251413868},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Geopolitical Risk and Stock Returns: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.