An Econometric Analysis of Exported Quantity of Tea from Bangladesh
Fazle Elahi et al.
What the paper says
ABSTRACT: The study is conducted to identify the factors affecting the export performance checking the trend of tea export from Bangladesh. Secondary data on tea export collected from Bangladesh Tea Board (BTB) for the period of 1990-91 to 2016-17. The best model for analyzing trend has been selected using the criteria- coefficient of determination R2, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Akaike information criteria (AIC), and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). Cubic model is found to be the most appropriate one. Tea export quantity from Bangladesh has been fluctuating over time showing a decreasing trend. The fluctuation in the export quantity, therefore, justifies the need to identify the factors which influence the tea export performance. The data exhibit no autocorrelation or heteroscedasticity problem. But most of the influencing factors show multicollinearity problem. To resolve the problem, a principal component regression (PCR) analysis has been performed. Among the factors affecting the exported quantity of tea-area, consumption, local price, world production, and world consumption are found to be significant at 1% level of probability whereas production and world price are at 5% level. The coefficient of area, consumption, local price, the world production and world consumption exhibit a negative and significant (p < 0.01) effect on the quantity of tea export from Bangladesh. The production and the world price show a negative and significant (p < 0.05) effect on the tea export from the country. In the world, people like high quality of tea with strong colour and flavour. Many countries are trying to increase its value-added products like cold tea, ice tea, lemon tea, etc. so that tea can be a supplement of cold drinks. For the low quality of tea compared to the other country, tea export from Bangladesh decreases. Bangladesh cannot adapt with the new technologies. For this reason, the country fails to generate optimum quality of tea to compete with the other global tea producing countries. Traditional production method and poor quality also affect the tea export performance of the country. So, the research findings may assist in the preparation of an export development plan for the country.
Evidence weight
Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40
| F · citation impact | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
| M · momentum | 0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07 |
| V · venue signal | 0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03 |
| R · text relevance † | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.