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Heterogeneous scars in later life: The economic impact of early labour market opportunities

Petru Crudu

Labour Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102864article
AJG 3ABDC A*
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0.50

Abstract

I analyse the heterogeneous effects of labour market opportunities at education completion on end-of-career outcomes. I use data on European individuals who completed education between 1963 and 1982, observing their outcomes beyond age 50. Using standard econometric models and machine learning, I find that poor initial opportunities have lasting effects. Economic downturns have a non-linear impact: missing good opportunities harms more than avoiding bad ones. Effects are stronger for less-educated and low socioeconomic individuals. Women face permanent reductions in labour market participation. I examine explanatory channels over the lifecycle, showing how initial opportunities shape human capital trajectories. • Early labour market opportunities have lasting effects on outcomes beyond age 50. • Economic downturns have a non-linear impact; missing good opportunities harms most. • Effects are strongest for less-educated and low socioeconomic individuals. • Women face permanent reductions in labour market participation. • Initial shocks shape human capital, leading to lower cognitive ability later in life.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102864

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@article{petru2026,
  title        = {{Heterogeneous scars in later life: The economic impact of early labour market opportunities}},
  author       = {Petru Crudu},
  journal      = {Labour Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102864},
}

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0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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