arbiter
JournalsAccount

“There Is No Wrong Time to Do the Right Thing”: Examining Factors Influencing the Offender’s Decision to Confess to Fraud and the Victim’s Decision to Refer to Authorities

Melanie Fortson et al.

Journal of Forensic Accounting Research2026https://doi.org/10.2308/jfar-2024-015article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

This study employs data mining techniques to investigate two important aspects of fraud cases: the likelihood of perpetrators confessing before discovery and the propensity for victim organizations to refer cases to law enforcement. Utilizing data from the ACFE, we apply Random Tree and Naive Bayes algorithms to develop predictive models. Although our findings reveal challenges in predicting pre-discovery confessions, where the best model achieved only 16.33 percent accuracy in identifying true confessions, we present a more promising model for predicting law enforcement referrals, with 66.34 percent accuracy and correct classification of 74.84 percent of actual referrals. The study identifies key demographic, situational, and behavioral factors that influence referrals and confessions. By expanding theoretical frameworks beyond the fraud triangle and addressing gaps in managerial and nonfinancial variables in fraud detection models, this research contributes important insights for fraud examiners and organizations and improves our understanding of post-fraud decision-making processes. Data Availability: Data are available from the ACFE Research Institute. Restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for this study. JEL Classifications: C55; G41; K42; M42.

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2308/jfar-2024-015

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{melanie2026,
  title        = {{“There Is No Wrong Time to Do the Right Thing”: Examining Factors Influencing the Offender’s Decision to Confess to Fraud and the Victim’s Decision to Refer to Authorities}},
  author       = {Melanie Fortson et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Forensic Accounting Research},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2308/jfar-2024-015},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

“There Is No Wrong Time to Do the Right Thing”: Examining Factors Influencing the Offender’s Decision to Confess to Fraud and the Victim’s Decision to Refer to Authorities

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.