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PROBABILISTIC SOCIAL COST OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION UNDER MODEL AND PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTY

Leonardo Chiani et al.

Climate Change Economics2025https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007826400026article
ABDC B
Weight
0.37

Abstract

We provide a probabilistic multi-model assessment of the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (SCGHG) by implementing a bottom-up damage function in two Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs): a detailed process-based model (WITCH) and a cost-benefit model with country-level resolution (RICE50[Formula: see text]). We generate over 18,000 estimates of the social costs of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O through extensive uncertainty analysis of economic development, population dynamics, climate response, and damage functions. Our global Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimates range from 65$/tCO 2 (RICE50[Formula: see text]) to 99$/tCO 2 (WITCH) using a 3% discount rate, rising to 130–171$/tCO 2 with 2% discounting. We find comparable importance of model choice, and key parameters such population dynamics, and economic growth projections. We demonstrate the methodology by computing the global and national SCC and their distribution. We find that countries with high exposure and large economies at risks (e.g., India, Nigeria and the US) have the largest national SCC. Our results emphasize the importance of model uncertainty alongside parametric uncertainty in computing the global and national values of the SCC.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007826400026

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@article{leonardo2025,
  title        = {{PROBABILISTIC SOCIAL COST OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION UNDER MODEL AND PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTY}},
  author       = {Leonardo Chiani et al.},
  journal      = {Climate Change Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007826400026},
}

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PROBABILISTIC SOCIAL COST OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION UNDER MODEL AND PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTY

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Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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