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Leader Similarity and International Sanctions

Jerg Gutmann et al.

Journal of Conflict Resolution2026https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261436355article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

It is well-established that political leaders matter for domestic outcomes, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is comparatively scarce. We ask whether the personal relationship between political leaders can change the propensity for nonviolent conflict between nation-states in the form of sanctions. Panel probit models with data from 1970 to 2004 are estimated to evaluate whether more similar leaders are less likely to sanction each other. Our results indicate that higher leader similarity reduces the likelihood of sanction imposition. The effect is most pronounced for sanctions imposed through unilateral political decisions. The probability of such sanctions ranges from 2.3 percent at the highest observed leader similarity to 7.2 percent at the lowest. Leader similarity especially matters for sanctions aimed at democratic change or human rights, for non-trade sanctions, and when at least one autocracy is involved. Finally, leader similarity has become more important after the Cold War.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261436355

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@article{jerg2026,
  title        = {{Leader Similarity and International Sanctions}},
  author       = {Jerg Gutmann et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261436355},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.