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What Drives Overstay? The Case of Afghan Asylum Seekers in Germany,

Romuald Méango & François Poinas

Journal of the European Economic Association2026https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvag012article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvag012

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@article{romuald2026,
  title        = {{What Drives Overstay? The Case of Afghan Asylum Seekers in Germany,}},
  author       = {Romuald Méango & François Poinas},
  journal      = {Journal of the European Economic Association},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvag012},
}

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What Drives Overstay? The Case of Afghan Asylum Seekers in Germany,

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.