DILEMMA OF CO2 MITIGATION: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE, CO2, AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS ON RICE YIELDS
Yu-Kai Huang et al.
Abstract
Rice feeds billions of populations, and its yields are sensitive to climate change, carbon dioxide (CO[Formula: see text], and technological progress. This study estimates a model of these effects using Asian rice yield data merged with free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experimental data. A three-stage generalized least squares model is developed to quantify their effects on mean rice yields and their variance. The results show that CO 2 concentration has significantly contributed to increased rice yields, accounting for 16–26% of observed yield growth over 1990–2015. This indicates that if significant CO 2 mitigation occurs, the CO 2 fertilization effect will diminish, inducing a yield reduction. This finding suggests that increased agricultural research and development investments are needed to overcome not only adverse climate change effects but also to counteract CO 2 mitigation effects on rice yields.
Evidence weight
Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40
| F · citation impact | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
| M · momentum | 0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07 |
| V · venue signal | 0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03 |
| R · text relevance † | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
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