A miscalculated risk: Investment choices under exponential growth bias

Karna Basu

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107365article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

“Exponential growth bias” – the tendency to underestimate exponential growth – has been shown to affect how much people save and borrow. I develop a simple theoretical framework to show that this bias, through its interaction with individual risk preferences, also affects how people save and borrow. Relatively risk-tolerant consumers will choose inefficiently safe investments, appearing more risk-averse than they are. In contrast, relatively risk-averse consumers will choose inefficiently risky investments, appearing less risk-averse than they are. I present survey data to support this hypothesis. The model introduces a new perspective on some apparent anomalies in intertemporal choice and raises additional considerations for consumer protection and financial literacy programs.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107365

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@article{karna2026,
  title        = {{A miscalculated risk: Investment choices under exponential growth bias}},
  author       = {Karna Basu},
  journal      = {Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107365},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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