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The Inverted U‐Shaped Puzzle: Natural Disaster Experiences and Government Emergency Budgeting in China

Ting Liu & Lei Liu

Public Budgeting & Finance2026https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.70023article
ABDC C
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

ABSTRACT This study empirically examines the inverted U‐shaped relationship between natural disaster experiences and the government reserve fund rate using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2015 and 2021. It identifies the threshold at which provincial governments learn from their past experience. This pattern may originate from the institutional rigidity in China's emergency finance system and shifting intergovernmental fiscal responsibilities via moral hazard. Our analysis uncovers this complex relationship by examining the institutional determinants of provincial budgetary decisions, providing an empirical basis for optimizing emergency fiscal systems and designing evidence‐based fiscal policies.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.70023

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@article{ting2026,
  title        = {{The Inverted U‐Shaped Puzzle: Natural Disaster Experiences and Government Emergency Budgeting in China}},
  author       = {Ting Liu & Lei Liu},
  journal      = {Public Budgeting & Finance},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.70023},
}

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The Inverted U‐Shaped Puzzle: Natural Disaster Experiences and Government Emergency Budgeting in China

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.