Revealing Migration Selectivity Through the Combination of Intention and Preparation: Evidence From African Migration
Zhenxiang Chen & Chenyu Liu
Abstract
A key explanation for variation in migration outcomes across destinations lies in the selectivity of migrants. This paper argues that combining intended destination with migration preparation provides a useful indicator of early‐stage migration selectivity, capturing how migrants with different destination intentions differ before departure. Using Afrobarometer Round 7 data, the study examines how educational attainment and religious affiliation shape migration preparation across three destination regions: Africa, Europe and North America. The findings highlight three salient patterns: (1) preparation for Europe follows a bifurcated pattern, with the highest and lowest educated more likely to prepare; (2) post‐secondary education is positively associated with migration preparation for North America; (3) Muslim affiliation is positively associated with preparation for intra‐African migration. These results suggest that preparation, when considered in conjunction with intended destination, provides a valuable proxy for early‐stage selection that is aligned with, and complementary to, existing evidence on migrant selectivity at destination.
Evidence weight
Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40
| F · citation impact | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
| M · momentum | 0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07 |
| V · venue signal | 0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03 |
| R · text relevance † | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.