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Permacrisis readiness: What 80+ scenario interventions reveal

Matthew J. Spaniol et al.

Business Horizons2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2026.03.001article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly challenged by “permacrisis” – a prolonged period of overlapping disruptions that drain resources and erode strategic advantages. Scenario planning has been recommended to aid firms in navigating such turbulence, yet SMEs rarely know what to expect when adopting these methods. This article draws on a national Danish initiative that supported more than 80 SMEs in using scenario planning to strengthen organizational readiness. Two waves of focus group interviews with the facilitating consultants were used to identify a set of role-shifts that strategists experience as they work with scenarios: moving from Predictors, to Scenarists, to Irritators, to Integrators, and, ultimately, to Actors. Managers mirror this journey through parallel roles as Listeners, Collaborators, Delegators, Deciders, and Enablers. These pathways illustrate how strategists and their managers “build back readiness” in SMEs during turbulent times.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2026.03.001

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@article{matthew2026,
  title        = {{Permacrisis readiness: What 80+ scenario interventions reveal}},
  author       = {Matthew J. Spaniol et al.},
  journal      = {Business Horizons},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2026.03.001},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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