Pyro-socioecological zoning: A proposal for fire management in the tropical dry forest

Abstract

• Integrating five dimensions of wildfire enables the delineation of pyro‑socioecological zones. • The pyro-socioecological zones show distinctive wildfire dynamics. • Global climatic drivers may obscure local wildfire mechanisms. • Understanding dominant wildfire drivers improve global fire management strategies. Tropical dry forests (TDFs) are among the most extensive and threatened ecosystems of the Neotropics, characterized by strong seasonality and high sensitivity to disturbance. Under climate change, drylands are expected to face more frequent and severe wildfires as prolonged drought and fuel dryness intensify fire activity. In TDFs, where fires are not naturally occurring, their growing prevalence has severe impacts on vegetation. Mexico hosts the largest extent of these forests, and wildfire dynamics vary considerably across its regions. To capture this variability, we defined pyro‑socioecological zones by integrating 91 freely available variables representing local, regional, and global drivers of wildfire. These variables included fuel connectivity, terrain characteristics, climate and extreme climatic events, as well as human-related drivers. We applied an ensemble of 10 different clustering approaches to delineate pyro-socioecological zones, aiming to capture the complex relationships among dominant variables across scales (i.e. Site, Landscape, Regional and Global climate, and Human dimension). Our ensemble resulted in eight pyro-socioecological zones with a confidence of 81%. Each zone was independently evaluated against wildfire dynamics (severity, extent, and frequency), revealing distinct dominant drivers. Our findings highlight the specific socioecological factors shaping wildfire regimes in TDFs, consistent with previous site‑level studies. By integrating multiple scales, our approach also indirectly identified pyro‑biocultural and pyro‑ecophysiological regions. Recognizing the dominant wildfire‑driving factors across scales provides a basis for more effective in‑site management policies. Ultimately, our framework moves beyond national one‑size‑fits‑all approaches by offering locally grounded, regionally applicable insights that strengthen resilience and guide fire management.