Analysis of fairness and ambition considerations in nationally determined contributions

Abstract

According to the Paris Agreement, climate action must be based on equity. In 2025, countries will have to submit their second nationally determined contribution (NDC) and these will have to provide arguments on how the party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances. This article presents a study of the information provided by countries in the fairness and ambition section of their NDC. The use of principles and indicators that are supported by international environmental law is analysed. Countries that use these principles and indicators are also mapped based on their historical emissions per capita and their GDP per capita, grouping them into developed countries, developing countries or countries belonging to the group of least developed countries and/or small island developing states. The study shows that the countries which most use principles and indicators supported by international environmental law are those with the least historical responsibility and economic capacity. It is also evident that the majority of countries use principles and indicators that are favourable to them when justifying their ambition, and that they avoid using those which would argue for an increase in ambition. It is particularly concerning that, in general, the developed countries do not base their arguments on these principles. The authors suggest that, to increase the robustness of the arguments, countries should report using principles consistent with international environmental law and, if possible, standardized indicators should be used to allow comparisons between countries.