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China, global value chains, and the middle-income trap

Michael Murphree & Dan Breznitz

Business and Politics2025https://doi.org/10.1017/bap.2024.37article
AJG 2ABDC C
Weight
0.44

What the paper says

Abstract Whether China can avoid the middle-income trap has been the subject of extensive research. Currently classified as an upper middle-income country, China increasingly exhibits similar characteristics as countries currently experiencing the middle-income trap. However, using evidence from China’s coastal manufacturing city of Dongguan, this article shows how China’s approach to global value chain (GVC) participation created conditions for avoiding the middle-income trap: 1) agglomeration and manufacturing scale at multiple stages of production, 2) a mix of foreign and domestic enterprises, 3) participation in GVCs for multiple industries, 4) development of domestic demand, and 5) continuously reconfiguring government industrial policies. With these characteristics, China’s economy is likely to continue to grow, suggesting that GVC participation can facilitate a path around the middle-income trap.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/bap.2024.37

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@article{michael2025,
  title        = {{China, global value chains, and the middle-income trap}},
  author       = {Michael Murphree & Dan Breznitz},
  journal      = {Business and Politics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/bap.2024.37},
}

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China, global value chains, and the middle-income trap

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Evidence weight

0.44

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.32 × 0.4 = 0.13
M · momentum0.57 × 0.15 = 0.09
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.