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Distribution-dependent number preferences

Ibraheem Catovic

Journal of Economic Science Association2025https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10026article
AJG 1ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

There is existing evidence that many individuals have preferences regarding selection of numbers in lottery games. Lottery data indicate that the percentage of players who choose their numbers, instead of having numbers randomly assigned, varies widely by lottery game. Differences in number selection mechanisms between games and an expected return maximization motive only present for parimutuel games are both reasons that can explain the variation. Differences in the payoff distributions between lottery games could also be contributing to the observed variation, a novel proposition. An experiment is designed to control for differences in number selection mechanisms and remove the expected return maximization motive, to test for the presence of distribution-dependent number preferences. Results indicate that 40% to 50% of subjects may display such preferences. It is therefore possible that distribution-dependent number preferences contribute to the empirical variation in number selection percentages in lottery games.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10026

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@article{ibraheem2025,
  title        = {{Distribution-dependent number preferences}},
  author       = {Ibraheem Catovic},
  journal      = {Journal of Economic Science Association},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/esa.2025.10026},
}

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Distribution-dependent number preferences

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.