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Three Lines, One Clock: Deadline-Driven Predictive Auditing to Mitigate Late-Payment Risk

Tim Bäßler & Marc Eulerich

Journal of Information Systems2026https://doi.org/10.2308/isys-2024-053article
AJG 1ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Internal audit is increasingly expected to move from a retrospective “after the fact” stance to a proactive, risk-mitigating role. We introduce a predictive process-monitoring approach that lets internal auditors forecast late-payment risk while preserving the role separation mandated by the Three Lines Model. Using the 2018 BPI Challenge event log and a synthetic corporate invoice log, we (1) transform traces into deadline-centered, time-bucketed prefixes; (2) compare five classifiers; and (3) embed the resulting accuracy-timeliness profiles in a four-phase decision framework that aligns intervention timing with organizational context and governance guard rails. The study contributes by showing (1) a concrete use case for predictive monitoring, (2) statistical evidence clarifying the accuracy-timeliness tradeoff for audit use cases, and (3) a reusable, governance-anchored decision framework. Data Availability: Supplemental material and source code data are available at in PredictiveMonitoringForAudit-main.zip. JEL Classifications: C53; C88; M42; O33.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2308/isys-2024-053

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@article{tim2026,
  title        = {{Three Lines, One Clock: Deadline-Driven Predictive Auditing to Mitigate Late-Payment Risk}},
  author       = {Tim Bäßler & Marc Eulerich},
  journal      = {Journal of Information Systems},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2308/isys-2024-053},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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